Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season/Dolly
04L.DOLLY AoI: Central Atlantic Some models are predicting one or two storms forming in the Central Atlantic or Caribbean, especially CMC and GFS. Let's see if they form, and if so, what they do. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:14, 12 July 2008 (UTC) :Form from what when where and why? Other than Bertha, there's hardly much rain to speak of anywhere in the entire basin; Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf; let alone potential unrest. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 07:24, 13 July 2008 (UTC) 94L.INVEST Woot! Am I good at this, or what? Models predict it heading into the south Caribbean or Venezuela, SHIPS predicts a cat. 2. NHC has also listed it as medium-chance for development. Let's see what it does, as this I think definitely is one to watch, could become Christobal. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:38, 13 July 2008 (UTC) :Don't get so full of yourself, models predicted it at least 3 days ago. - 17:23, 13 July 2008 (UTC) ::Goddamnit, I hate when it does this. The moment I say it's strangely dead out there, something bad happens. It's like in the movies when they say, "It's quiet...too quiet." Now the bad guys are shootin' at us. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:07, 13 July 2008 (UTC) :::Some rotation is evident. If this system can just organize itself some more, we may have a Depression. My personal prediction? Category 1 Christobal. - Enzo Aquarius 19:04, 13 July 2008 (UTC) ::::7/9 models predicting TS or above within 120 hours, GFDL with the extra-strong forecast, with a cat. 3. It could enter the Caribbean or track north over Antigua and Barbuda and Puerto Rico, could also enter the Gulf. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:24, 13 July 2008 (UTC) :::::NHC upgraded to High risk of development. I have a great feeling now that 94L will turn into a Depression within a day or two. - Enzo Aquarius 00:31, 14 July 2008 (UTC) I normally don't say this, but I'd be stunned if this doesn't become Cristobal. If you told me it was a tropical storm right now, I wouldn't bat an eye; this thing is very healthy. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:44, 14 July 2008 (UTC) :Hmm, this storm looks awfully familiar...Ernesto, anyone? However, just as Ernesto's early forecast, nowhere in its possible path is out of the woods yet...not even New Orleans. Models are now agreeing on entering the Caribbean, this could really be one to watch. However, there's a flank that's semi-connected to the storm that extends almost to the equator. So, if it enters the Caribbean, Venezuela may need to watch this too, as it could dump a lot of rain. I think it has a good chance of entering the Gulf, so many, many people should be watching this right now. The water in the area is pretty warm, but just like Ernesto, the models don't predict a hurricane until near the end of the 5-day period. The bad thing about hurricanes in this invest's exact spot is, you never know where it will hit. Much of the Gulf Coast got locky from Ernesto, but you never know with these types of storms. Another interesting paradox is, if Bertha strengthens, the gap in the Bermuda high will push this storm north and weaken it like Ernesto, but if Bertha weakens, then the high should push this storm far enough south to affect the Gulf, and maybe even spawn a second storm from that huge flank south of it. Let's see what happens, and I wouldn't be surprised if it were upgraded to Cristobal tonight or tomorrow. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:50, 14 July 2008 (UTC) ::Judging by the track predictions, I see a little 'Dean' or 'Felix' in this system. Some of the models have almost the exact same track as Dean or Felix had last year... - Enzo Aquarius 17:04, 14 July 2008 (UTC) :::Lost a significant amount of convection overnight but NHC says it's still on the verge. Conditions seem favorable and most of the intensity guidence brings it to at least 45-50 knots in 120 hours. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:30, 14 July 2008 (UTC) ::::NHC still predicts it as high risk of development despite the loss of convection. We may be seeing a Tropical Depression by tonight or tomorrow. - Enzo Aquarius 20:16, 14 July 2008 (UTC) :::::Hmm, a lot of the models are weakening this one or keeping it weak. I think I see a cross between an Ernesto and a Dean, and if so, New Orleans may need to watch this one. I think Haiti, Cuba, and the US Gulf Coast need to pay especially close attention to this one, but just like we learned with Ernesto and Dean, you can't accurately predict a storm like this more than 3 days in advance. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:55, 14 July 2008 (UTC) ::::::Well this thing needs to get its sh!t together in a hurry or it's not even going to be a footnote. I'm stunned by how this thing fell apart. This time yesterday, it looked like Cristobal. Now it looks like scattered showers. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:20, 15 July 2008 (UTC) :::::::As well, NHC has lowered their risk of this storm to moderate. It's still there, but needs to develop more. - Enzo Aquarius 16:39, 15 July 2008 (UTC) ::::::::Cool, it's just had another deep burst of convection! NHC has issued an STD statement, upgraded the development risk to high, and a hurricane hunter is to fly into the system later today and see if a TD has formed, so it looks like we just might have a TD by 5pm. It's already just 10km/h shy of a TS, and models predict movement toward the Dutch islands, then up towards Honduras and the Yucatan, and possibly into the Gulf. I predict it will pass between St. Vincent and Grenada as a TD, then make landfall near Cozumel as a strong TS, then possibly make landfall on Louisiana and Mississippi as a cat. 3, and head into southern Ontario while extratropical, but what happens beyond say Honduras and Jamaica depends on its exact track and potential shear, and if it even makes it there in the first place. Most models are keeping it weak, but CMC heads it into the Pacific to join that other AoI. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:57, 16 July 2008 (UTC) :::::::::The system is developing well by looks of satelite imagery, and it sure is dropping a ton of rain. I wouldn't be surprised if it is declared a TD this afternoon. - Enzo Aquarius 16:31, 16 July 2008 (UTC) I don't know, it looks borderline to me. I wouldn't be surprised if the Hurricane Hunter gets there and finds out it's nothing. And even if it does become a depression, I can't see it developing much as the conditions it's heading into aren't that favorable -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:32, 16 July 2008 (UTC) :SHIPS is predicting a cat. 1, but the models are disagreeing on its track. CMC heads it into the Pacific to follow that AoI ahead of it, but re-emerges it in the Gulf. GFDL and GFS are predicting what looks like a landfall on Mexico near Tampico. HWRF brings it into the central Gulf but keeps it weak. It might be slow to develop, but if it does, I think Grenada, the Dutch Islands, Colombia, Nicaragua, Honduras, Mexico, and the US Gulf coast from Texas to Alabama may still need to watch this. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:55, 16 July 2008 (UTC) ::It's been almost 4 days now, and NOAA still predicts a high risk of development. If anything happens, it should be any day now. - Enzo Aquarius 02:32, 17 July 2008 (UTC) :::It was originally moving southwest, but now the models develop it a bit more. NHC is now sending ''another plane towards the storm, and a depression could develop when it drifts far enough northwest, and GFDL and HWRF even put New Orleans in danger. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:04, 17 July 2008 (UTC) ::::Still doesn't look like it has an LLCC but most of the intensity guidance gives it a name, consensus seeming to be 45 knots in 96 hours and a landfall somewhere in Belize in some form. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:53, 17 July 2008 (UTC) ::::Um, this is no problem, right? 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:52, 18 July 2008 (UTC) :::::Whoa, hello! This thing just got happy in a hurry! It looks like Tropical Depression Four right now. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:44, 18 July 2008 (UTC) :From the NHC: "AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15-20 MPH." - Enzo Aquarius 01:49, 19 July 2008 (UTC) ::I question that assessment. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:15, 19 July 2008 (UTC) Say goodbye to Houston! -- RattleMan 08:39, 19 July 2008 (UTC) :NHC is still going on about lack of development: "...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH." - Enzo Aquarius 16:26, 19 July 2008 (UTC) ::Holy cow! The GFDL predicts it to strike on July 24, the percise date I predicted it would from five days ago! GFDL is now predicting a cat. 2 strike on the Texas/Louisiana border. If that previous forecast is right, though, then we could have a Rita-repeat. However, it looks like, if this storm does form, it's going to be Dolly instead of Cristobal, because TD three will probably be Cristobal. Like I said from the start, the US Gulf Coast needs to watch this, and so does the Mexican Gulf coast. Either way. I think we could get some heavy rains here in Southern Ontario a week from now, something no weather forecast will predict in time because they factor out tropical cyclones until their track is determined. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:52, 19 July 2008 (UTC) :::If it rains, it'll probably happen during the night. Seems to be a common trend in Ontario this month. :P - Enzo Aquarius 17:02, 19 July 2008 (UTC) ::::RattleMan, please don't scare me like that, that model makes it look almost exactly like the Galeveston Hurricane; exact same pressure, exact same location and faster winds. Entertaining worst case scenarios will age you in this business. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:14, 19 July 2008 (UTC) :::::Heh, sorry about that Eric. Anyway, it's been 108 years since the Galveston Hurricane; if it does happen, Galveston will be better prepared this time around. -- RattleMan 19:18, 19 July 2008 (UTC) ::::::It worked in 1915, but the seawall is just meant to keep the storm surge from demolishing the town. The 1915 storm still killed 367 people in the area. I think the citizens of Galveston County would just as soon not put it to the test. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:27, 19 July 2008 (UTC) :::::::Recon's being sent ''again! Looks like it will hit the Brownsville area, which was spared by Dean in 2007. Probably won't be much, but NHC says it already has TS-force gusts. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:07, 19 July 2008 (UTC) Geez. This much discussion for an invest that hasn't even gotten close to a TD yet. However convection is building and it's closing off. I predict a TD on sunday by 5pm. -Winter123 03:53, 20 July 2008 (UTC) :Recon aircraft detected no closed circulation, but NHC is still holding out for development in a day or two. - Enzo Aquarius 04:03, 20 July 2008 (UTC) ::Wow, here it is with TS-force winds but no closed circulation. If it does develop, I think it will skip TD atogether and directly become Dolly. Otherwise, it might go all this way without developing as did 99L of 2007. Models predict landfall on Yucatan, but I see a definite NW (as opposed to WNW) movement, which would take it directly into the Gulf, causing further strengthening. This is a rather large system, and apparently did have closed circulation at one point, but even passing close to land seems to hinder its development. Predicted to hit somewhere between Tampico and Brownsville, and if it does rain here I think we will have to wait till Sunday. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:34, 20 July 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Dolly NRL calls this dolly even though I see no strong closed circulation. If its a mistake this link will die. Edit, so does NOAA. -Winter123 15:28, 20 July 2008 (UTC) :It's about time. I don't know if it's a mistake, but NHC doesn't have it up yet but Wikipedia's calling it Dolly. Like I said, it already has TS winds, but we might have to wait until the 2/5 pm advisory for a confirmation. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:39, 20 July 2008 (UTC) ::It's OFFICIAL! NHC has issued its first advisory, and TS warnings are in effect for much of Yucatan, which means we will have 3-hour advisories. Not expected to develop into a hurricane, but could still affect the Texas/Mexico border area. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:35, 20 July 2008 (UTC) :::Oh boy did NHC ever botch this one. I think it's probably had a closed circulation for the better part of 24 hours now. Now we got a 40 knot storm jumpin' on top of some people. Watch out Gulf of Mexico; when anticyclones start parking over storms, bad things tend to happen. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:11, 20 July 2008 (UTC) ::::Brownsville needs to watch out, maybe even Galveston if it strengthens to a hurricane in the gulf, which i think it will -Winter123 18:19, 20 July 2008 (UTC) :::::NHC predicts strengthening after passing the Yucatan and entering the Gulf. Southern Texans better keep their eyes out for this system and get ready. There's something interesting though...I predicted this system would follow Dean/Felix's tracks...which it has basically. :P - Enzo Aquarius 01:01, 21 July 2008 (UTC) :Hurricane watches have been issued for the southern coast line of Texas. NHC still predicts strengthening to hurricane-status within two days. - Enzo Aquarius 15:59, 21 July 2008 (UTC) ::The problem is, that area is filled with oil platforms, low-lying deltas, and barrier islands. Even a moderate surge may be damaging to anything directly on the coast, but other than that I wouldn't expect much, unless it turns to a cat. 3 or something. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:27, 21 July 2008 (UTC) :::This could be bad. This has high bad potential. Striking further south in Mexico sooner is probably the best case scenario here but as it's hard for me to imagine a peak intensity lower than 70 knots, this isn't a great best case scenario. If you live anywhere between Port Mansfield, Texas and La Pesca, Mexico, you need to be cleaning out the grocery stores right now. And if the forecast gets any worse, a trip to the hardware store mightn't go astray. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:48, 21 July 2008 (UTC) ::::Come on now, this is a cat. 1 it's predicted to be. It could be bad for the Brownsville area, because it's supposed to rain on the Rio Grande for a full 60 hours, which could cause some flooding. This system is HUGE, its outer rainbands stretching 1200 km (750 mi). Gusts could reach 110 mph in places, though. Oil prices may rise, but if you think it's high in the US, here in Canada it's the equivalent of about $5.00 a gallon. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:58, 21 July 2008 (UTC) :::::Oh sh!t, here she comes http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:19, 22 July 2008 (UTC) :Expected to be a hurricane at landfall, 1 PM on Wednesday. Wouldn't be surprised if this thing became a category 2... - Enzo Aquarius 00:46, 22 July 2008 (UTC) ::Hurricane warnings are now being issued for the southern coast-lines of Texas. - Enzo Aquarius 03:59, 22 July 2008 (UTC) :::(damnit, you stole my thunder!) Hurricane warnings out. Fasten your seatbelts boys and girls, it's showtime. When the double red and black flags go up, it has a tendancy to get exhilarating rather quickly. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:03, 22 July 2008 (UTC) :I bet that Dolly will be upgraded to hurricane status by the next statement (2 PM). She's looking pretty developed. - Enzo Aquarius 16:51, 22 July 2008 (UTC) ::Maybe, but I'm banking more on 5pm. ''"The center of Dolly is beginning to show up on Brownsville radar." To quote the Joker in the new Batman movie: "And here...we...go." -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:42, 22 July 2008 (UTC) Hurricane Dolly As I said, as of the 5 pm advisory, Dolly is now a hurricane and forecast to make landfall near the US/Mexico border tomorrow afternoon. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:03, 22 July 2008 (UTC) :Category 2, 100mph winds, 30 miles ENE of Brownsville, Texas. Landfall expected within hours, Tropical Storm warnings discontinued north of Port O'Connor. NHC's experimental Surface Wind field map shows hurricane force winds already over land. - Salak 15:01, 23 July 2008 (UTC) ::Storm surge above 5 ft expected in some areas, tornado warning issued for Corpus Christi area. Judging by the Corpus Christi-based NEXRAD radar, Dolly will make landfall halfway between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, not on the US-Mexico border as many suggest. Oil prices currently falling. Dolly is still strengthening even as it makes its landfall, which is yet to happen. Possibility of making two landfalls, one on the barrier islands and another on the mainland. Storm surge possible in Corpus Christi area. SHIPS keeps its remnants as a strong depression through 120 hours. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:34, 23 July 2008 (UTC) :::I know somebody in Corpus Christi, thank goodness he went to Dallas for a few days. I did not expect Dolly to reach '''Category 2' status, but she did, and the south coast of Texas is getting pounded right now. - Enzo Aquarius 16:17, 23 July 2008 (UTC) ::::Well look at the positives, brownsville is getting the south side of the storm. But on the other hand winds are just as strong as if it had stayed cat 1 and hit mexico. -Winter123 17:58, 23 July 2008 (UTC) :::::South Padre Island is getting the crap beat out of it. Weather Channel guy Jim Cantore said he hears pieces of roof flying off his hotel, debris is flying around like crazy, water is leaking into the rooms and the wind has been around 60-70 mph since this morning. I know safety always comes first, but I don't buy the techinical guy's excuse for not being able to get satellite truck up. He says winds need to drop to 50 mph. My ass, 50 mph. During '04-'05, they were broadcasting when you could barely hear them over the wind and they had to hold onto poles to keep from being blown across the street. I hope they at least took some taped footage, but it doesn't sound like it. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:19, 23 July 2008 (UTC) ::::::Wow, more than 12 hours on land and still a well-defined eye. Is that a NW wobble i see? If it keeps this up it'll follow the texas border up to new mexico and be a hurricane the whole way! :P Maybe its getting energy from the Rio Grande river. :P Is it possible to get energy from a river if it moves straight over it? The mississippi would be a better example, wonder if any storms have gone straight up it and kept their strength. -Winter123 07:10, 24 July 2008 (UTC) :::::::Not that I've ever heard of. I don't think the Rio Grande has near enough water. I have heard of strong hurricanes maintaining strength over marshy, low-lying areas such as the Everglades and the Louisiana Delta. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:14, 25 July 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Dolly Post-Landfall Still looks amazing, despite being on land for almost 24 hours. More than 195000 people are without power, was tracking Dolly for a few hours around landfall, and she hit land pretty hard. The Rio Grande doesn't appear to be at risk of flooding, though Ozo Creek in Corpus Christi does. Not only that, but Dolly moved 'very very very''' painfully slow, talk about a very interesting storm indeed. - Enzo Aquarius 15:31, 24 July 2008 (UTC) :Starting to fall apart but still a clear LLC! Like i said, is the Rio Grande Giving it power? :D -Winter123 23:25, 26 July 2008 (UTC) ::Dolly's circulation is drifting northeast over the western tip of Oklahoma! Think it can make it all the way to the east coast and reform? :D -Winter123 00:28, 28 July 2008 (UTC)